It’s been a rollercoaster few weeks for AFC Bournemouth. Having turned over Chelsea, they repeated the feat against one of the perceived bigger clubs by beating Manchester United 2-1.
It’s a period of justification for manager Eddie Howe after ignoring the advice of ‘expert’ pundit Martin Keown and sticking to his guns.
But are the seaside club just collecting memories before joining Aston Villa in the Championship?
It’s easy to be dismissive of Aston Villa’s survival chances. Nobody at this time of year with such a low tally has pulled off an escape act. Usually another truism would be that newly promoted clubs need to race to a survival target in the first half of the season but the eventual drop-off occurs.
This is a strange year where perhaps the usual rules no longer apply. Villa still look doomed but there are too many upsets taking place on a regular basis to make the usual assumptions. Normally the defending champions aren’t one point above the relegation zone in mid-December and teams like Leicester aren’t two clear at the top.
Combined with how Bournemouth try and play good football and have a high work rate, they should be considered contenders for survival. Eddie Howe has geared his side up to play a certain brand and it was preposterous of Keown to suggest they should abandon it. At this point in their history an alteration would lead to less organisation and require on-the-job training during close matches.
The problem is, over 38 games, it still may not be enough to ensure safety. It seems that points at the top will be lower than usual but such a tight league, with so many unexpected results, will see a far greater spread of points. This means 40 points, seen as the tide mark of survival, may still result in teams going down after reaching it.
Suddenly the question becomes: Can you see Bournemouth hitting 45 points? It’s a far bigger ask and requires a continued period of good form when those around them have sprung into life. Newcastle United have turned a corner and Sunderland will be feeling confident with survival specialist Big Sam Allardyce at the club.
Taking Chelsea out of the equation, giving the reigning champions the benefit of the doubt for a little while longer, it leaves Swansea and Norwich as potential candidates. The Canaries fought for a point against Everton but failed to take easy chances. They fit the bill perfectly as the team that needs to maximise points while heads are still up.
Swansea are already looking demoralised but they have a bonus coming their way. At some point they will have an injection of new manager syndrome. A team is almost guaranteed a lift under a new boss. Unless the team is Aston Villa, in which case, it lasts for a training session and a 0-0 draw against Manchester City.
A good omen for Bournemouth could be that Michael Owen has tipped them for the drop, The Mag reported him saying: “I think Aston Villa, Sunderland and Bournemouth are the likeliest relegation candidates at the moment.”
He’s an ‘expert’ from the same mould as Martin Keown, so perhaps Villa and Bournemouth will be playing their football in next season’s Premier League after all.
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